Pelaut ADIPATI l Kalitbang INDOMARITIM l CEO TRUST l Presiden SPI l Volunteer INMETA
The geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific, particularly involving China, continues to evolve rapidly, as the country modernizes its military. According to the latest Pentagon report, China now possesses the largest navy in the world, equipped with advanced weaponry and sensors capable of operating far from Chinese shores, including in areas like the Gulf of Aden. This growing maritime power has the potential to exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea, a region of strategic importance to Indonesia and other ASEAN countries. Given this backdrop, how will the geopolitical situation in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific develop by 2025?
China’s Military Modernization and Its Impact on Maritime Tensions
One of the key factors driving geopolitical dynamics in the region is China’s ambition to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea. China is not only expanding its fleet of warships but is also developing the capability to operate much further from its coastlines. The Pentagon report indicates that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is now equipped with multi-role vessels that include advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-submarine weapon systems. This modernization not only bolsters China’s position in this geopolitically sensitive region but also increases the potential for conflict with countries that have overlapping territorial claims, including Indonesia.
Indonesia, with its territorial claims over the Natuna waters in the South China Sea, remains at the forefront of this tension. Although Indonesia officially does not recognize China’s Nine-Dash Line claims, China’s growing military presence near Natuna could lead to potential confrontations. By 2025, Indonesia will likely face significant challenges in managing these tensions while maintaining its independent foreign policy of a free and active approach. Indonesia must strengthen its diplomatic position by deepening security ties with countries such as Japan and the United States to counter China’s increasingly assertive stance.
China-Russia Military Cooperation: A Challenge for ASEAN
By 2025, China’s military cooperation with Russia is expected to continue expanding, with increasingly frequent joint military exercises. Since 2023, China and Russia have conducted a series of joint exercises that not only enhance their bilateral relationship but also shake up the security stability in the region. Countries in ASEAN, which have an interest in maintaining peace and stability in the region, must be aware of the implications of this strengthening alliance.
These joint exercises, involving air and naval forces, demonstrate an increase in military capabilities for both nations, although some observers argue that these exercises are more coordinated than a demonstration of advanced operational capabilities. Nonetheless, their impact on regional security is felt, particularly in countries with competing maritime claims in the South China Sea, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Indonesia must maintain its active role in ASEAN’s security cooperation to mitigate tensions arising from this external influence and strengthen regional security agreements based on non-aggression and dialogue.
China’s Nuclear Arsenal and Diversification of Escalation Capabilities
Another important dynamic influencing the geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea is China’s growing nuclear capabilities. The Pentagon predicts that China’s nuclear stockpile will exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, a significant increase from the current estimated number of 600 warheads. China is now developing three different types of nuclear delivery systems, including modernized strategic bombers and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. This strengthening of nuclear capabilities not only affects stability in the Indo-Pacific but also adds a layer of uncertainty to regional security policies.
For Indonesia and other ASEAN countries, this development poses a major challenge in terms of arms control and non-proliferation. Indonesia, which has long supported a nuclear-free policy, must face the reality that more major powers are strengthening their nuclear capabilities. By 2025, Indonesia will likely be more engaged in international diplomacy to support non-proliferation initiatives while also strengthening its security cooperation with countries that share a similar vision of keeping the Indo-Pacific region free from nuclear threats.
Internal Politics in China and Its Impact on Foreign Policy
One factor that may influence China’s foreign policy in 2025 is the ongoing anti-corruption campaign launched by President Xi Jinping. Since 2021, China has purged senior military officials, including those in the Rocket Force responsible for China’s missile development programs. While this anti-corruption drive may lead to greater discipline and integrity within the military ranks, it also creates uncertainty regarding the direction of China’s military policies.
The impact of this on China’s foreign policy, particularly regarding military operations in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, may become clearer by 2025. If this purging process continues, there is a possibility that China’s military decisions will become more cautious, given the potential instability caused by internal purges. ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, must be prepared for potential shifts in China’s military policy and strengthen dialogue and defense cooperation to reduce potential tensions.
Toward 2025, A Balance of Power at Sea
The year 2025 will be a critical juncture in the evolving geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific, with China continuing its assertive expansion of its maritime influence and military modernization. Indonesia and ASEAN countries must confront these challenges by strengthening regional defense cooperation and practicing prudent diplomacy. Maintaining stability in the South China Sea, mitigating nuclear threats, and responding to China’s growing influence will require a balance of diplomatic dialogue and military preparedness. As a country with a free and active foreign policy, Indonesia will continue to play a pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability in this increasingly complex region.
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