Pelaut ADIPATI l Kalitbang INDOMARITIM l CEO TRUST l Presiden SPI l Volunteer INMETA
Indonesia is at a critical crossroads as it prepares for the inauguration of Prabowo Subianto as President on October 20. The former general, who was once seen as an unlikely candidate due to his controversial political history, is now set to take the highest office in Southeast Asia’s largest country, which is becoming increasingly influential on the global stage. His ascension raises several questions about how Prabowo will shape both domestic and foreign policy, as well as how Indonesia’s geopolitical role will evolve under his leadership.
Global Demographic Dynamics: Challenges and Opportunities for Indonesia
The world is undergoing significant demographic changes, with far-reaching impacts on global economic and political stability. Developed countries like Japan, Europe, and the United States are facing aging populations, shrinking workforces, and stagnant or declining economic growth. In contrast, developing countries, particularly in Asia and Africa, continue to have younger populations and larger working-age groups, although they too are beginning to experience declining birth rates.
Indonesia, as one of the major developing nations, is at a pivotal moment in its demographic transition. It is expected to reach the peak of its working-age population in the coming decade before confronting the same challenges of aging and reduced workforce seen in advanced economies. However, with its large, youthful population, Indonesia still has the opportunity to leverage this demographic bonus to boost economic productivity and strengthen its role as a geopolitical force in Asia.
Prabowo Subianto: Ambition to Make Indonesia the “Asian Tiger”
Against this backdrop of global demographic shifts, Prabowo Subianto enters the scene with an ambitious vision to transform Indonesia into an “Asian Tiger.” Prabowo appears to recognize that with a large population and a growing economy, Indonesia has the potential to assert itself as a new regional power, both economically and militarily. A key focus of his agenda is likely to be bolstering Indonesia’s defense capabilities, particularly in the maritime domain, to safeguard national interests in Southeast Asia’s strategic waters.
In addition to military strengthening, Prabowo plans to advance key sectors such as infrastructure and technology, which he sees as essential foundations for sustained economic growth. With a large workforce and productive population, Prabowo has the potential to drive economic productivity by creating quality jobs and attracting more foreign investment. His economic policies are expected to focus on building up domestic economic resilience while maintaining strong diplomatic relations with major global powers like the United States and China.
Political and Economic Challenges Under Prabowo
While Prabowo’s vision is ambitious, he also faces significant challenges in leading Indonesia. One of the primary concerns is managing the country’s ongoing demographic transition. As birth rates continue to decline and the population ages, Indonesia could eventually face reduced economic productivity and increasing social welfare burdens, similar to what advanced economies are experiencing today. If not managed carefully, these trends could hinder Indonesia’s ability to remain competitive globally.
Another major concern is the potential impact of Prabowo’s presidency on democracy and human rights. Prabowo has a controversial track record, especially related to human rights abuses during the Suharto era. Despite efforts to rehabilitate his public image, many political observers and activists fear that his presidency could pose a threat to the democratic progress that Indonesia has achieved since the fall of Suharto’s authoritarian regime. His close alignment with outgoing President Joko Widodo, who has also been criticized for weakening democratic institutions in recent years, further raises questions about Indonesia’s future political trajectory.
Indonesia’s Geopolitical Position
Indonesia holds a strategic position in Southeast Asia, with the potential to play a larger role in regional and global geopolitics. Under Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia is expected to adopt a more proactive stance in foreign policy, increasing its participation in international forums and strengthening bilateral relations with major powers. Relations with the United States and China are likely to be high on Prabowo’s foreign policy agenda, given Indonesia’s strategic location in the Indo-Pacific and the opportunity to attract significant foreign investments.
However, managing relations between the United States and China—two rival powers with competing interests in the region—will be a delicate balancing act for Prabowo. As tensions between these two powers continue to rise in the Indo-Pacific, Prabowo will need to carefully navigate Indonesia’s diplomatic stance, ensuring that the country remains independent while benefiting from its strategic importance. Additionally, Indonesia’s vast natural resources and critical maritime trade routes offer leverage that Prabowo can use to bolster Indonesia’s geopolitical influence and secure greater foreign investment.
Indonesia’s Future Under Prabowo
Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration as President marks a new chapter in Indonesia’s political and geopolitical history. With a bold vision of transforming Indonesia into an “Asian Tiger,” Prabowo has both significant opportunities and challenges ahead. Global demographic changes offer Indonesia a window of opportunity to capitalize on its youthful population, but the government must prepare for the longer-term challenges of an aging workforce and declining fertility.
While Prabowo seeks to bolster Indonesia’s economy and military, there are also concerns about the future of democracy and human rights under his leadership. His controversial past raises doubts about his commitment to democratic principles, and his close ties to Joko Widodo, who has shown increasing authoritarian tendencies, could exacerbate fears of democratic backsliding.
Indonesia is now at a critical juncture, and the world will be watching closely to see how Prabowo will steer the country toward a stronger and more influential future on the global stage. Whether he will succeed in realizing his vision of leadership that propels Indonesia to new heights, or fall into the traps of the country’s turbulent political past, remains to be seen.
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